As 2025 wraps up, many buyers and sellers in Victoria are asking the same thing: what will the housing market look like in 2026. Early signs point to a year of cautious optimism. Provincial forecasts suggest residential sales across British Columbia should rise in 2026 as more buyers re enter the market and confidence slowly improves. National and provincial outlooks also anticipate more balanced conditions overall, with additional inventory giving buyers more choice and tempering rapid price swings.
Locally, Victoria’s fundamentals remain strong. The region continues to attract newcomers for government, tech, health care, and education careers, and lifestyle migrants who value our climate, schools, and culture. Recent MLS data shows active listings on the Victoria Real Estate Board have increased compared with the tightest years of the last cycle but still sit below long term norms, which helps support prices. Analysts expect price growth to moderate into the low single digits rather than the rapid jumps of earlier years, especially in core single family homes.
For buyers, 2026 could feel more manageable. Forecasts call for slightly improved listing activity, especially in townhomes and condos, which may ease pressure at more affordable price points. If mortgage rates begin to trend down as some economists expect, more first time buyers and move up families may be able to qualify for the homes they have been watching from the sidelines. A slower pace with fewer intense multiple offer situations means you can take more time for inspections and negotiations while still needing a clear strategy in popular neighbourhoods.
For sellers, conditions should remain generally supportive as long as homes are priced in line with updated comparables and presented well. Lifestyle sellers, downsizers, and equity rich owners are expected to keep coming to market, especially in established lifestyle areas like Oak Bay, Fairfield, and the Saanich Peninsula. With more competing listings, strategic staging, professional marketing, and realistic pricing become even more central to achieving top results.
Every forecast has risks on both the upside and downside. Interest rate cuts earlier than expected, stronger job growth, or faster zoning and housing reforms could spark more demand than predicted. Conversely, slower economic growth or stubbornly high borrowing costs could keep some buyers cautious longer. In any of these scenarios, having up to date local advice makes a big difference.
If you are considering a move in 2026, now is the time to start planning. Reach out to discuss what these forecasts mean for your specific property or buying plans and to build a strategy for the year ahead.
